ISSN: 2056-3736 (Online Version) | 2056-3728 (Print Version)

The exposure of technology and knowledge intense sectors to the business cycle

Werner Hölzl, Serguei Kaniovski and Andreas Reinstaller

Correspondence: Andreas Reinstaller, andreas.reinstaller@wifo.ac.at

Austrian Institute for Economics Research (WIFO), Austria

pdf (894.42 Kb) | doi:

Abstract

This paper studies the business cycle sensitivity of industries using different industry groupings. The results show that technologically intense industries are heavily affected by business cycles. While the overall importance of business cycles for long-run growth seems to be rather limited, we observe for industries with high technology intensity that business cycles may have persistent long-run effects on sectoral performance.

Keywords:

  technology shocks, business cycle, long-run restrictions, sectoral response, structural change


References

Afonso A., Furceri D., 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, 29(4), pp. 2996-3014.

Aghion, P., Angeletos, G. M., Banerjee, A., Manova, K., "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment", Journal of Monetary Economics, 2010, 57(3), pp. 246–265.

Alexius, A., Carlsson, M., 2005. Measures of technology and the business cycle. Review of Economics and Statistics 87, 299-307.

Basu, S., 1996. Procyclical productivity: Increasing returns or cyclical utilization. Quarterly Journal of Economics 111, 719-751.

Baumol, W., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: The anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57, 415-26.

Blanchard, O., Quah, D., 1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. American Economic Review 79, 655-673.

Francis, N., Ramey, V. A., 2005. Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited. Journal of Monetary Economics 52, 1379-1399.

Gali, J., 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249-271.

Hölzl, W. and Reinstaller, A., 2005, Sectoral and Aggregate Technology Shocks: Is There a Relationship, Empirica, 32, 45-72.

Hölzl, W. and Reinstaller, A., 2007, The impact of productivity and demand shocks on structural dynamics: Evidence from Austrian manufacturing, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 18, 145-166.

Hölzl, W. and Reinstaller, A., 2011, On the heterogeneity of sectoral growth and structural dynamics: evidence from Austrian manufacturing industries. Applied Economics 43, 2565-2582

Miozzo A., Soete L., 2001. Internationalization of Services: A Technological Perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 67, 159-185.

OECD, 2009. Policy responses to the economic crisis: Investing in innovation for long-term growth. OECD, Paris.

Pasinetti, L. L., 1993. Structural economic dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Pavitt, K., 1984. Sectoral Patterns of technical change: towards a taxonomy and a theory. Research Policy 13, 343-373.

Peneder, M., 2007. A Sectoral Taxonomy of Educational Intensity. Empirica 34, pp. 189-212.