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If $GBPJPY closes above 173.47, next resistance looks like 176.40. Looking for deepest possible upswing for a short trade.

– ENERGY: NYMEX WTI Crude (+1.20%) to 33.62, ICE Brent Crude (+1.36%) to 34.35 NYMEX Nat Gas (+2.66%) to 2.241.

– BoJ: Ishida said fall in JGB yield would not be positive for economy, Kiuchi said negative rates only appropriate in crisis.

– BoJ: Negative rates to apply from Feb 16.

– Asian markets climbed after Japan shares took a roller-coaster ride in the immediate aftermath of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to adopt a negative interest rate policy. The Nikkei 225, which was down 0.6 percent before the announcement, surged as much as 3.51 percent soon after, before tumbling as much as 1 percent. It then surged to close up 2.80 percent, or 476.85 points, at 17,518.30. After the BOJ move, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japan government bond (JGB) fell to a record low of 0.11 percent from around 0.22 percent before the decision. There was no quick agreement on why the market outlook on the move shifted so quickly. Gavin Parry, managing director at Parry International Trading, suggested that a move to negative deposit rates just after a supplementary increase in Japan’s qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE) program could have been read to mean the BOJ was running out of bullets. In its statement on Friday, the central bank said it would continue with the QQE and negative interest rate policies for “as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner.” He noted that the BOJ had imposed a “three-tier” system on negative rates. With the huge amount of bank reserves currently sitting with the central bank, “if they impose a negative rate on all these balances, it would have a big impact on banks’ profitability,” he said, noting that existing reserves were going to be exempted, but there was likely confusion about how the amounts subject to negative rates would be increased.

The dollar-yen pair gained advanced after the announcement, trading as high as 121.35, from around 118.50 before the news. The pair trimmed gains to trade around 120.82 after the Japan stock market closed.

-$NZD, $JPY, and $AUD are expected to be the most active majors vs $USD with 1W implied volatility at 15.46, 14.85, and 14.39 respectively.

-Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Despite a recent surge, the so-called fear index remains in a trading range that suggests investors aren’t expecting a recession this year. With an average of about 24 this month, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is consistent with a scenario of positive, though low, economic growth, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. report. The “Red Zone” happens when the VIX is above 25 and climbing, which historically coincides with flat or negative U.S. gross domestic product. The oil rout and concerns about China’s slowdown have put the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index on track for it

– Hong Kong able to support currency peg in view of low debt – Moody’s

– The dollar fell broadly on Thursday as a plunge in U.S. durable goods orders supported the view of weakening U.S. growth due to softer global demand, which may cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a slower pace than it had previously signaled. The much weaker-than-expected reading in durable goods orders, which fell by the most since August 2014, raised the prospects of a lower-than-expected U.S. gross domestic product number on Friday. A weak U.S. GDP figure, combined with the global equity market volatility that has plagued investors so far in 2016, would greatly reduce the likelihood that the Fed would raise interest rates four times as it had suggested back in December. “Markets seem to be grappling with the fact that (the Fed is) not going to be tightening aggressively,” said Jonathan Lewis, chief investment officer at Fiera Capital in New York. “If the Fed is most likely to hold off or not tighten aggressively, then we can begin to think about moving from risk-off to risk-on (trading).”

Major news for today: EZ CPI, US Q4 GDP, EUR German Retail Sales, CAD GDP.