Thomas Ziesemer

Correspondence: Thomas Ziesemer, t.ziesemer@maastrichtuniversity.nl

Department of Economics, Maastricht University, Netherlands

pdf (1666.86 Kb) | doi:

Abstract

We estimate a dynamic simultaneous equation model for 16 variables of the Croatian economy in order to test the links of growth with education, R&D, trade, savings and FDI. In order to motivate the choice of variables we review the related theories of growth and look at the relevant data. Permanent shocks increasing the intercepts of the equations for education, R&D, trade, savings and FDI show that most of growth links work well in Croatia, but they also enhance foreign imbalances. Policies to balance the two aspects are briefly discussed. All results should be interpreted with caution due to the small data sample we have up until now.

Keywords:

  Growth, open economy, education, R&D, Croatia

References

Aghion, Philippe and Peter Howitt (1992) A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 1992, vol. 60, issue 2, 323-51.Arrow, Kenneth J. (1962) The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing. The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 29, No. 3 (Jun., 1962), pp. 155-173.Bardhan, Pranab K & Lewis, Sydney (1970). Models of Growth with Imported Inputs. Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 37(148), 373-385.Branson, W.H. and J.W. Litvack (1981) Macroeconomics, Harper and Row. New York.Brezis, E., P. Krugman and D. Tsiddon (1993) Leapfrogging: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership, American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No. 5, 1211-1219.Cobb C.W. and Douglas P.H. (1928), "A Theory of Production", American Economic Review, 18 (Supplement), 139-165.Davidson, Russell and James G. MacKinnon (2004) Econometric Theory and Methods. Oxford University Press, New York.Domar, Evsey D. (1946) Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment, Econometrica, Vol. 14, No. 2 (Apr., 1946), pp. 137-147.Droste-Franke, Bert, Boris P. Paal, Christian Rehtanz, Dirk Uwe Sauer, Jens-Peter Schneider, Miranda Schreurs, Thomas Ziesemer (2012) Balancing Renewable Electricity. Energy Storage, Demand Side Management and Network Extension from an Interdisciplinary Perspective. Co-authored by Springer, Heidelberg New York.Fagerberg, J. (1988) Why Growth Rates Differ. in Giovanni Dosi, Christopher Freeman, Richard Nelson, Gerald Silverberg, and Luc Soete (eds.), Technical Change and Economic Theory (London: Pinter, 1988.Fagerberg, Jan (1994) Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates. Journal of Economic Literature Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 1147-1175.Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015) The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, available for download at www.ggdc.net/pwt.Greene, W.H. (2010) Econometric Analysis.Prentice-Hall, New Jersey.Grossman, Gene M. and Elhanan Helpman (1991) Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth. The Review of Economic Studies Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 43-61.Grossman and Helpman (1991b) Innovation and Growth in a Global Economy. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.Grossman, Gene M. and Elhanan Helpman (1995) Technology and trade. In Gene M. Grossman and Kenneth Rogoff (eds.) Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, North Holland, Volume 3, Chapter 25, pages 1279-1337.Ha, Joonkyung, Peter Howitt (2007) Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi‐Endogenous Growth Theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 39, No. 4, 734‐774.

Habiyaremye, Alexis and Thomas H.W. Ziesemer (2012) Export Demand Elasticities as Determinants of Growth: Estimates for Mauritius. Applied Economics, Volume 44, Issue 9, March, 1143-1158.Harrod, Roy F. (1939) An Essay in Dynamic Theory. The Economic Journal. 49 (193): 14–33.Heinz Holländer (1974) Das Gesetz des tendenziellen Falls der Profitrate, in: Schriftenreihe „Mehrwert“ H.6, Erlangen, Juni, S.105 – 131.Howitt, Peter (1999) "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy 107, no. 4 (August): 715-730.Jones, Charles I. (1995) R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 103, No. 4, pp. 759-78.Judd, Kenneth L. (1985) On the Performance of Patents. Econometrica, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 567-586.Kaldor, N. (1957). A model for economic growth. Economic Journal, 67: 591–624.Kaldor, Nicholas and James Mirrlees (1962) A New Model of Economic Growth. Review of Economic Studies, vol. 29, issue 3, 174-192.Kocherlakota, Narayana R. and Kei-Mu Yi (1997) Is There Endogenous Long-Run Growth? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 2 (May), pp. 235-262.Kromphardt, J. (1980) Konzeptionen und Analysen des Kapitalismus. UTB Vandenhoek und Ruprecht 1017, Göttingen.Lucas, Robert E. Jr. (1988) On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics Volume 22, Issue 1, 3-42.Thomas Robert Malthus (1798) An Essay on the Principle of Population. The Law Book Exchange, New Jersey.Madsen, Jakob B. (2008) Semi‐endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models: testing the knowledge production function using international data. Journal of Economic Growth 13: 1 –26.Mankiw, N.G., D. Romer, D.N. Weil (1992) A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May, 407-437.Marx, K. ( 1894) Das Kapital. Kritik der Politischen Ökonomie, Dritter Band, Buch III: Der Gesamtprozess der kapitalistischen Produktion. Edited by F. Engels, Hamburg 1894. Dietz Verlag Berlin 1964.Bernard M. Hoekman, Keith E. Maskus and Kamal Saggi (2005) Transfer of Technology to Developing Countries: Unilateral and Multilateral Policy Options. World Development Vol. 33, No. 10, pp. 1587–1602.Mutz, Christine and Thomas Ziesemer (2008) Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil, Volume 40, Issue 22, 2921-2937.Phelps, E. S. (1966) Models of Technical Progress and the Golden Rule of Research. The Review of Economic Studies Vol. 33, No. 2, 133-145.Prebisch, R. (1950): The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems, Economic Bulletin for Latin America, Vol. VII, No. 1, February 1962 (reprinted), p.1-22.Prebisch, Raúl (1959) Commercial Policy in the Underdeveloped Countries The American Economic Review, Vol. 49, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings (May), 251-273.Ricardo, D (1821) The principles of taxation and political economy, JM Dent, London.Romer, Paul M. (1986) Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy 94:5, 1002-1037.Paul M. Romer (1990) Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy 98:5, Part 2, S71-S102.Rivera-Batiz, L. and Paul Romer (1991) Economic integration and endogenous growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 531–556.Paul A. Samuelson (1983) Thünen at Two Hundred. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 1468-1488.Schneider, Johannes and Ziesemer, Thomas (1994): What's New and What's Old in New Growth Theory: Endogenous Technology, Microfoundation, and Growth Rate Predictions. Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Vol. 115, (1995): pp. 429-472.

Shell, Karl (1967) A Model of Inventive Activity and Capital Accumulation. In Essays on the Theory of Optimal Economic Growth, edited by Karl Shell, 67-85. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.Singer, Hans W. (1999) Beyond Terms of Trade – Convergence and Divergence. Journal of International Development 11: 911–916.Soete, Luc, Bart Verspagen and Thomas Ziesemer (2017) The productivity effect of public R&D in the Netherlands, UNU-MERIT WP 2017-021.Solow, Robert M. (1956) A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXX, 1, 65-94.Solow Robert M. (1957) Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 3, 312-320.Tinbergen, J. 1942. Zur Theorie der Langfristigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 55: 511-49.Uzawa, Hirofumi (1965) Optimum Technical Change in an Aggregative Model of Economic Growth.” International Economic Review 6, 18-31.Bart Verspagen (1995) R&D and productivity: A broad cross-section cross-country look. Journal of Productivity Analysis Volume 6, Issue 2, July, pp 117–135.Von Thünen, J. H. (1826) Der isolierte Staat in Beziehung auf Landwirtschaft und Nationalökonomie (Rostock).Weizsäcker, Carl Christian von (1969) Forschungsinvestitionen und makroökonomische Modelle - ein wirtschaftstheoretisches Dilemma. Kyklos 12: 454-65.WITS, World Integrated Trade Solution, www.worldbank.org.AlwynYoung (1994) Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view. European Economic Review, Volume 38, Issues 3–4, April, 964-973.Zarembka, P. (1972): Toward a Theory of Economic Development, San Francisco.Ziesemer, T 1987 Economic Theory of Underdevelopment. Regensburg, transfer-verlag.Ziesemer, T. (1990) Public Factors and Democracy in Poverty Analysis, Oxford Economic Papers, 1990, Special Issue on Public Economics, Vol.42, January, 268-280.Ziesemer, T. (1991) Human Capital, Market Structure and Taxation in a Growth Model with Endogenous Technical Progress, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol.13, 1991, No.1, Winter, 47-68.Ziesemer, T. (1995a) Endogenous Growth with Public Factors and Heterogeneous Human Capital Producers, Finanzarchiv, Neue Folge, Vol. 52, Issue 1, 1-20.Ziesemer, Thomas (1995b) Economic Development and Endogenous Terms of Trade Determination: Rexamination and Reinterpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis, UNCTAD Review: 17–34.Ziesemer, Thomas (1995c) Growth with Imported Capital Goods, Limited Export Demand and Foreign Debt. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 17, No.1, 31-53.Ziesemer, Thomas (1998) A Prebisch-Singer Growth Model and the Debt Crises. In: "DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS and POLICY", edited by David Sapsford and John-ren Chen, Macmillan 1998, 300-317.Ziesemer, T. (2005) Growth with perfect capital movements in CES: US Debt Dynamics and model estimation. MERIT-Infonomics Research Memorandum series 2005-014.