ISSN: 2056-3736 (Online Version) | 2056-3728 (Print Version)


The 30-year Treasury bond led a rebound in the bond market Monday as a disappointing U.S. housing report boosted the allure of haven assets. Buying sent the yield on the 30-year bond to as low as 3.228%, a fresh low for this year and the weakest point since June 2013. Bond yields fall as their prices rise.

In recent trading, the benchmark 10-year note was 1/32 higher, yielding 2.465%, according to Tradeweb. The 30-year bond was 9/32 higher, yielding 3.229%.

The 30-year bond offers the highest yield in the U.S. government bond market. It also yields higher compared with counterparts in Germany and Japan, luring buyers seeking relative value.

Bond prices had fallen earlier, weighed down by looming new debt sales. The Treasury is scheduled to sell $108 billion of new notes this week, starting with $29 billion in two-year notes at 1 p.m. ET Monday. Dealers typically sell bonds before new supply to entice clients to buy new bonds at cheaper levels.

Buyers stepped in after the unexpected 1.1% decline in pending home sales, which raised concerns that the pace of the U.S. economic recovery from a sharp contraction in the first quarter could be slower than many investors expect.

The 10-year note’s yield is near this year’s low of 2.4% set during the May 29 session. The yield was 3% at the start of January.

An uneven pace of the global economy has sent Treasury bond yields lower this year. U.S. bonds offer superior yields compared with Germany and Japan, also luring investors seeking relative value. China, the biggest foreign owner of U.S. government debt, has bought Treasurys this year in a bid to lower the value of the nation’s currency to boost exports.

The Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day meeting on Tuesday. It is scheduled to release a statement Wednesday afternoon regarding the latest assessments on the economy and inflation, as well as its interest-rate policy.

Economists widely expect the Fed to announce another $10 billion reduction in its monthly bond buying, shrinking the purchases to $25 billion a month. The Fed has been cutting monthly buying since January. Policy makers have said the buying program-which has played a big role in keeping bond yields near historic lows to stimulate the economy-likely ends before the end of October.

A key focus for bond investors is when the Fed is going to start raising its official interest rates.

Economists and investors expect the Fed won’t hike interest rates until the middle of 2015. The Fed has held its key policy rate-the fed-funds rate-near zero since December 2008.

Analysts caution that the central bank could bring forward the timing of a rate hike if the U.S. economy accelerates or inflation concerns pick up speed.

The picture of the U.S. economy remains uncertain. Employment has gathered speed, but some indicators of the housing sector continue to signal a tepid pace of growth. Wage pressures-an inflation gauge closely tracked by Fed officials, especially Chairwoman Janet Yellen-have remained contained.

Ms. Yellen said last month that the central bank may need to keep interest rates low for a considerable period to get the economy to a firmer footing.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley still expect the 10-year yield to rise to 3% by the end of the year. The key argument to send yields higher is that the U.S. economy is gaining momentum while inflation pressure continues to tick higher, factors that could push the Fed to raise official interest rates earlier than many investors expect.