ISSN: 2056-3736 (Online Version) | 2056-3728 (Print Version)


Money managers for Asia’s wealthiest families say they’ll be looking elsewhere for returns after chasing the U.S. dollar’s gains in the past three years.

UBS Group AG, the world’s largest private bank, is telling clients there’s “little room for further dollar appreciation,” said James Purcell, cross-asset strategist at its wealth management business in Hong Kong. Stephen Diggle, who runs a family office in Singapore called Vulpes Investment Management, said U.S. rate increases aren’t enough “to chase a strong dollar.” Stamford Management Pte, which oversees $250 million for Asia’s rich, will review its outlook for greenback gains after expected advances in the first quarter, said Jason Wang, its chief executive officer in the city.

Strategists also predict the dollar’s gains will slow in coming months after the Federal Reserve committed to a gradual pace of tightening. The currency will appreciate about 5 percent to $1.05 per euro by the third quarter of 2016, according to a Bloomberg survey, after surging 10 percent this year. Its advance versus the Japanese currency will be limited to less than 4 percent to 125 yen, after gains slowed to about 0.6 percent in 2015, from more than 10 percent in each of the previous three years.

   Looking for Yields

“Our clients will likely see the increase in U.S. interest rates as an opportunity to earn higher yields on the their assets by shifting into dollars,” said Purcell, who is based in Hong Kong. “We need to remind them that financial markets move on surprises, not absolutes. The increase in rates was extremely well telegraphed and the rate-divergence story well known.”

The yen may be a better cross to express a strong dollar view than the euro, Purcell said. UBS expects the dollar to be little changed at $1.08 per euro in six months and to rise to 127 yen, he said. The greenback was at $1.0976 versus the common currency as of 4:30 p.m. in Singapore on Monday and at 120.53 yen. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi sparked the euro’s biggest rally since 2009 by unveiling a smaller-than-anticipated stimulus package this month. By contrast, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are almost evenly split on whether the Bank of Japan will add to its asset-purchase program or not.