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Brent crude oil prices were steady Monday morning, as investors watched to see whether a relief rally will continue this week. Oil prices fell to four-year lows last week as oil producers showed no signs of cutting back production even though global growth looks increasingly fragile. Prices recovered slightly at the end of last week, and analysts at Morgan Stanley said that rise may continue, given that the Northern Hemisphere winter is approaching.

“Physical markets are stronger, refinery runs are set to rise sharply into winter, and supply risks are elevated–any of which could turn sentiment,” they wrote. Still, plentiful supplies, a period of low refinery runs and a limited response from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will prevent a sharp rebound, they said.

David Hufton of brokerage PVM said prices may drift back to around $90 a barrel or higher in the short term. But longer term, plentiful supplies are still likely to weigh on prices, he said.

The possibility of high supplies of oil and low demand have been worrying investors for several months.

An actual oil surplus may materialize in the first half of next year, which would be “alarming,” and can only be averted if oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait agree to cut back production, he said.

“The supply/demand numbers…suggest strongly that we will be revisiting the $80 [a barrel] region again in the not too distant future,” he added.

Brent crude oil for December delivery is down 2 cents at $86.14 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. WTI crude for delivery in November is 25 cents at $83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Recently ICE gas oil was up $4.50 at $739.50 a metric ton, while gasoline was up 41 points at $2.2368 a gallon.