ISSN: 2056-3736 (Online Version) | 2056-3728 (Print Version)

image_pdfimage_print

Crude-oil futures continued to drop in Asian trade Tuesday as market sentiment remained bearish, with more data showing a further slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector. Oil prices have now fallen around 47%-48% since their peak in June this year, their largest drop since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The slump in oil prices is having a ripple effect across financial markets and economies, and market participants are still unsure of where prices will bottom.

China’s manufacturing sector showed a decline as HSBC’s China flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for December slid to a seven-month low of 49.5 compared with 50.0 in November.

“With China PMI lower than expected, we would need U.S. and E.U. manufacturing PMI to perform exceptionally well, or else [oil] prices would likely continue on its descent,” analyst Daniel Ang at Phillip Futures said. He said weak manufacturing data from other regions could cause Brent crude to breach the strong support level of $60 a barrel.

In the last three months alone, Brent crude has tumbled 40%, a level of adjustment that has only happened three times in the last 24 years, according to Morgan Stanley.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t call for an emergency meeting unless something drastic happens in the oil market, the United Arab Emirates’ oil minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said Monday.

He said the cartel won’t cut its production level for now as the move would only provide a temporary fix to the price drop. The refusal of OPEC and its core members to balance oil markets has caused much of the recent oil price slump, but the U.S. shale revolution has also contributed to the global oil surplus.

“As the industry takes the ‘fat’ out of the system that was built up over the past decade, the new equilibrium price is dropping sharply – where it settles is unknown right now,” Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group said in a note.

He said data on the cost of producing oil will give a better idea of where oil prices will settle, “but in the meantime volatility will likely remain high with risks skewed to the downside as the market searches for a new equilibrium.”

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson said an improvement in the demand-supply fundamentals for crude in the near-term don’t matter for the oil price right now.

He said other factors like price momentum and headlines will likely continue to drive oil prices until the physical market forces a change, such as shutting off oil production.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at $55.64 a barrel at 0431 GMT, down $0.27 in the Globex electronic session. January Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.44 to $60.62 a barrel.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for January–the benchmark gasoline contract–fell 96.00001 points to $1.5668 a gallon, while January diesel traded at $1.9837, 180 points lower.