ISSN: 2056-3736 (Online Version) | 2056-3728 (Print Version)
Hiroaki Sakurai
Correspondence: Hiroaki Sakurai, hiroaki_sakurai_cao@yahoo.co.jp
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism, Government of Japan
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This paper examines the economic impact of foreign aid, specifically whether it leads to Dutch disease, in Thailand between 1972 and 2014, using a VAR model, together with the Granger causality test and the impulse response test. Few previous studies have been made of Southeast Asian countries even though Thailand has experienced rapid economic growth using foreign aid to construct infrastructure, and by introducing foreign direct investment into manufacturing industries. The causality and impulse response tests indicate that Dutch disease has not occurred; the impact of foreign aid proved positive, as there was little room to increase consumption and the aid contributed directly to capital accumulation.
Foreign Aid, Dutch Disease, Thailand
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Vasilios Sogiakas
Correspondence: Vasilios Sogiakas, vasilios.sogiakas@glasgow.ac.uk
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
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This paper examines the incentives and the effectiveness of tighter regulation of the Italian banks in terms of their profitability. Using balance and off-balance sheet data I focus on the capital requirements and the liquidity characteristics of the banking sector by the convenient Tier 1 ratio and the Basel III long-term Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), respectively. The empirical findings of the paper underline the important role that the NSFR has as a preventive tool for potential bank failures while addresses the incentives behind the enforcement of higher Tier 1 ratios as a way for more risk averting profiles mainly during turbulent periods.
Basel III; NSFR; banking efficiency; financial crisis
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Minh Quang Dao
Correspondence: Minh Quang Dao, mqdao@eiu.edu
Eastern Illinois University, USA
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This paper examines the impact of public policies and institutions on economic growth in developing countries. Based on data from the World Bank for the 2000-2015 period and a sample of thirty-nine low-income and lower middle-income economies we find that the growth rate of GDP is dependent on a country’s economic management of its debt policy, its structural policies regarding the financial sector and the business regulatory environment, and its policies for social inclusion and equity dealing with gender equality, with building human resources, and with social protection and labor, along with the growth rates of inputs such as land, physical capital, general government consumption, and net exports. We observe that the coefficient estimates of two explanatory variables, namely, the structural policies regarding the financial sector and the policies for social inclusion and equity dealing with gender equality, do not have their expected sign, possibly to the collinearity between the structural policies regarding the financial sector and the debt policy variable, the business regulatory environment variable, the building human resources variable, and the social protection and labor variable and that between the gender equality variable and the business regulatory environment variable, the building human resources variable, and the social protection and labor variable. We also note that the business regulatory variable is not significant using the t-test, but its exclusion from the model results in a decrease in its explanatory power as measured by the adjusted coefficient of determination. We suspect that this is also due to the collinearity between this variable and three policies for social inclusion and equity variables. Statistical results of such empirical examination will assist governments in developing countries focus on appropriate policies dealing with the economic management of debt policy, those of a structural nature regarding the financial sector and the business regulatory environment, and those for social inclusion and equity such as improving gender equality, building human resources and providing social protection and labor in order to foster economic growth. Public sector management and institutions, on the other hand, do not seem to influence a developing country’s rate of economic growth.
Public Policies and Institutions, GDP Growth, Developing Countries.
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Séverine Menguy
Correspondence: Séverine Menguy, severine.menguy@orange.fr
Université Paris Descartes, France
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We use a simple DSGE model in order to evaluate the efficiency of various fiscal policies intended to sustain economic activity and growth. A decrease in the consumption taxation rate appears as the most efficient fiscal policy. Indeed, as goods are then less expansive, it would imply an increase in the same proportion of all components of economic activity: private consumption and investment, as well as public expenditure. Besides, it would also strongly favor public investment in the composition of public expenditure, in order to increase the productivity of private factors and to satisfy the higher global demand. In comparison, a decrease in the capital taxation rate would reduce the capital cost, and it would favor private and public investment. However, the effect would be minor on private consumption and even negative on public consumption expenditure; the increase in global economic activity would then be more moderate. Finally, a decrease in the labor taxation rate would not be able to increase private economic activity, in the framework of our model, and it would favor public consumption to the detriment of the most productive public investment expenditure.
DSGE model, budgetary policy, consumption taxation rate, capital taxation rate, labor taxation rate.
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Andrey Kudryavtsev
Correspondence: Andrey Kudryavtsev, andreyk@yvc.ac.il
Department of Economics and Management, The Max Stern Yezreel Valley College, Israel
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My study explores the effect of future volatility expectations, embedded in VIX index, on large daily stock price changes and on subsequent stock returns. Following both psychological and financial literature claiming that good (bad) mood may cause people to perceive positive (negative) future outcomes as more probable and that the changes in the value of VIX may be negatively correlated with contemporaneous investors’ mood, I hypothesize that if a major positive (negative) stock price move takes place on a day when the value of VIX falls (rises), then its magnitude may be amplified by positive (negative) investors' mood, creating price overreaction to the initial company-specific shock, which may result in subsequent price reversal. In line with my hypothesis, I document that both positive and negative large price moves accompanied by the opposite-sign contemporaneous changes in VIX are followed by significant reversals on the next two trading days and over five- and twenty-day intervals following the event, the magnitude of the reversals increasing over longer post-event windows, while large stock price changes taking place on the days when the value of VIX moves in the same direction are followed by non-significant price drifts. The results remain robust after accounting for additional company (size, beta, historical volatility) and event-specific (stock's return and trading volume on the event day) factors, and are stronger for small and volatile stocks.
Behavioral Finance; Large Price Changes; Mood; Overreaction; Stock Price Reversals; Volatility Expectations; VIX.
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Vasilios Sogiakas
Correspondence: Vasilios Sogiakas, vasilios.sogiakas@glasgow.ac.uk
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
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This paper investigates the dynamics of the factors of the Fama & French (1993) model using data from the UK financial market. Since financial markets are exposed to exogenous and endogenous structural changes due to the implementation of new regulative guidelines and/or the fluctuation of investors’ behavior or the unanticipated financial crises, my analysis is based on an econometric methodology that accounts for structural breaks and regimes shifts. According to the empirical results of the paper, although the functioning of the conventional risk premiums seems to adequately explain the cross-sectionality of share returns, there exists instability on the parameter set, which is associated with the fundamentals of the UK economy. Finally, the implications of these results shed much light on the contribution of the recent financial crisis into the informational efficiency of the UK financial market. Thus, although the current liquidity crisis is linked with unanticipated imbalances in the economic environment, it might have been a good opportunity for individual and institutional investors to revise their investing strategies, since the excess returns’ risk premia have reached more informative regimes.
Efficient Market Hypothesis, Three Factor model, Regime Shift, Financial Crises
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Michael Day, Mark Diamond, Jeff Card, Jake Hurd and Jianping Xu
Correspondence: Michael Day, michael.day0809@gmail.com
Department of Economics, Saint Louis University, USA
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The Chinese stock market is unique in which it is moved more by individual retail investors than institutional investors. Therefore, for economic and political stability it is more important to efficiently manage the risk of the Chinese stock market. We investigate its volatility dynamics through the GARCH model with three types of heavy-tailed distributions, the Student’s t, the NIG and the NRIG distributions. Our results show that estimated parameters for all the three types of distributions are statistical significant and the NIG distribution has the best empirical performance in fitting the Chinese stock market index returns.
generalized hyperbolic distribution, GARCH model, SHA
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Zi-Yi Guo
Correspondence: Zi-Yi Guo, Zach.Guo@wellsfargo.com
Corporate Model Risk Management Group, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A
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Traditional econometric modelling typically follows the idea that market returns follow a normal distribution. However, the concept of tail risk indicates that the distribution of returns is not normal, but skewed and has heavy tails. Thus, a heavy-tailed distribution, which accurately estimates the tail risk, would significantly improve quantitative risk management practice. In this paper, we compare four widely used heavy-tailed distributions using the S&P 500 daily returns. Our results indicate that the Skewed t distribution in Hansen (1994) has the superior empirical performance compared with the Student’s t distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution and the generalized hyperbolic distribution. We further showed the Skewed t distribution could generate the VaR estimates closest to the nonparametric historical VaR estimates compared with other heavy-tailed distributions.
Tail risk; Value at Risk; Goodness of fit.
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Minh Quang Dao
Correspondence: Minh Quang Dao, mqdao@eiu.edu
Eastern Illinois University, USA
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This paper empirically assesses the determinants of the share of government consumption in the GDP in high-income countries at two points in time, namely the year 2000 and 2014 while taking into consideration the major issue of potential simultaneity bias by introducing interaction variables. Based on data from the World Bank and using a sample of twenty-six high-income economies in 2000, we find that the share of government consumption in the GDP growth is dependent upon the log of population, its square, the log of the labor force, and interaction terms between the square of the log of the labor force and the log of population, between the log of the labor force and its square, and between the log of population and the log of the labor force. For the year 2014 and using a sample of forty-five high-income countries we find that the size of government as measured by the ratio of government consumption in the GDP is dependent upon the log of per capita gross national income, the log of the labor force, the log of population, the log of urbanization (measured as the share of the urban population in the total population), and the interaction terms between the log of per capita gross income and that of urbanization, the log of urbanization and that of the labor force, and between the log of urbanization and that of population. Statistical results of such empirical examination will contribute towards a better understanding of the determinants of the size of government in high-income economies. Data for all variables are from the 2016 World Development Indicators. We specify and estimate a semi log and quadratic model and observe that some coefficient estimates do not have the expected sign due to possible collinearity among some independent variables.
Government Consumption Expenditure, Per Capita Gross National Income, Urbanization, Labor Force, High-Income Countries.
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Zura Kakushadze
Correspondence: Zura Kakushadze , zura@quantigic.com
Quantigic Solutions LLC, USA
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We discuss – in what is intended to be a pedagogical fashion – a criterion, which is a lower bound on a certain ratio, for when a stock (or a similar instrument) is not a good investment in the long term, which can happen even if the expected return is positive. The root cause is that prices are positive and have skewed, long-tailed distributions, which coupled with volatility results in a long-run asymmetry. This relates to bubbles in stock prices, which we discuss using a simple binomial tree model, without resorting to the stochastic calculus machinery. We illustrate empirical properties of the aforesaid ratio. Log of market cap and sectors appear to be relevant explanatory variables for this ratio, while price-to-book ratio (or its log) is not. We also discuss a short-term effect of volatility, to wit, the analog of Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in finance and a simple derivation thereof using a binary tree.
Bubble, Skewed Distribution, Stock Price, Volatility, Return, Dividends, Buybacks, Binomial Tree, Brownian Motion, Uncertainty Principle, Market Cap, Price-To-Book, Sectors, Time Ordering.
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